Following yesterday’s post on Privatix, a question quickly arose: “Where is the price headed and should I buy now during the ICO or immediately after?” The question is premised on the observation that the coin prices seem to drop drastically right after it gets listed on the exchange(s).
Let us now look at some prolific ICO’s and observe the price patterns shortly after listing. There is no scientific method utilized, I pick the ones based on what I feel like picking – Chadnalysis. There are hundreds of ICO’s that did not do well at all and are now more or less dead. The ones that discussed here are thus subject to survivor’s bias.
You can visit https://icostats.com/roi-since-ico and sort ROI since ICO in descending order. It’s not all sunshine and rainbows.
Disclaimer: This analysis is written with full understanding that the sample size is extremely small and selected with strong bias. It is meant more as an illustration than as a basis for investment strategy.
1. Ethereum (ETH)
Ethereum is perhaps the best known crypto after BTC. Ethereum’s ICO ended 2 September 2014. The ICO price was $0.311 with 50 000 000 ether’s sold for $15 571 000.
Trading began on 7 August 2015, a good while later, at $2.38. The price ranged from $2.38 to $3.54, and closing at $2.77. However, during the following days, the price dropped steeply, bottoming out at $0.629191 two days later on 9 August 2015. Even there it was double the ICO price. Although the average FOMO-trader must have been kicking himself for buying in at $3.54 and losing over 80% of his investment in the span of two days.
Or, assuming that he just said “fuck this”, didn’t sell, and walked away for 2 short years. Then one day remembered his ETH and checked the price on 9 August 2017: open at $297.63.
The lowest that ETH has ever seen was at 21 October 2015 at $0.420897. Even at its lowest it was slightly up from the ICO.
ETH subsequently went on to make one of the greatest bull runs in crypto history.The price never went below the initial ICO price. However, ETH is not a very good case study, since it has shown remarkable adaptation and is, by all accounts, a roaring success.
You can find more info on ETH ICO in Vitalik Buterin’s post.
2. TenX (PAY)
At the end of the ICO, one PAY token was valued at $0.794.
Lowest point was 16 July 2017 at $0.478733. The entirety of July 2018, in middle of a great crypto bull run, PAY was down low. A lot of it had to do with the CEO being accused of being a scammer, after he had allegedly been involved in a pyramid scheme earlier in his life. True or not, such news affect the market incredibly strongly. Rumors move at the speed of light and crypto never sleeps, the tail wags the dog even stronger in crypto than in stocks.
TenX had such, such promise. It would be the answer to every cryptonaire’s dilemma: How to actually buy chips and soda from the local convenience store with magic internet money?
I actually believe TenX to have potential and it the downward trend should end soon… Ish. If you bought at the ICO and held on through the early dip, you are in the green by a nice margin. Valued at the time of writing at $1.77, you made 123% gains from the ICO. And this token has had a relatively rough road.
3. Mysterium (MYST)
Which makes one token worth $0.928.
I thought to include MYST in this too since it was mentioned yesterday. It competes in the same niche and it could be convincingly argued that PRIX and MYST are more similar then not. How this is reflected on the price is anyone’s guess. We could hypothesize that if there’s demand for one, there should be for the other. After all, both coins are almost purely speculative at this point.
All time low at $0.429764 on 16 July 2017, but it should be noted that in the past few days it has also been extremely low, getting near $0.6.
MYST has the dubious honor of being the only coin whose ICO so far has not been worth it. Well done, chaps.
4. Basic Attention Token (BAT)
That makes the price of one BAT a neat $0.035 at the end of the ICO.
5. Walton (WTC)
The ICO for Waltonchain token ended on 29 July 2017 with one ETH netting 550 WTC (down from 680 on 8 July). At the rate of the day then that ~25 million WTC for ~29 k ETH at open of $193,34 made one WTC worth $0.224.
When looking at the chart below, it should be kept in mind that WTC had an extraordinary amount of FUD surrounding it. The team did not really communicate too well in English during the Chinese ICO bans and crackdown on exchanges. That combined with, what I suspect to be, organized efforts to manipulate the price with targeted social media campaigns and volume based manipulation on Binance, created massive swings in price.
Lowest low was reached on 30 August 2017, $0.508927 and even then it was double the price of the ICO.
I actually think that WTC will be one of the big scorers. By summer of 2018, WTC will have gained B I G L Y. Moon math analysis on WTC is under works.
There are several reasons to participate in an ICO, other than just the hope for profits. For example, you might actually want to support the project and hope for it to succeed. If that’s your angle, just shoot all the money you can at the project.
There’s nothing wrong with purely seeking profit. And if you have strong belief, which is based on material facts that speak in your favor, that the coin will do well once listed, by all means, just put everything you can spare in. Some things to look for include the team, the hype, the product itself, problem and the feasibility of the proposed answer, and partners and advisers.
If you’re on the fence, just allocate 50% of your designated position during the ICO and the rest when it’s listed on an exchange. That way you control at least some of the risk.
And on the other end of the pendulum, if you feel hesitant about the project, just don’t get involved. But naturally greed and FOMO kick in and you must get some. Then just wait for it to be listed and buy at the fresh low. This is especially smart advise if you sniff any red flags during the hunt for the next Antshares ICO.
As a closing note, it is probably better to compare the price development to BTC’s (or even simply TO BTC), or to the total index of top 100 cryptos (by market cap) to give a better indicator of the growth. After all, all growth is nice but if your golden boy ICO gains +2% in 6 months while BTC rushes to double or triple, maybe it wasn’t such a good call after all? Perhaps I’ll post such an analysis later.
All charts from https://coinmarketcap.com
Most of the pricing information during ICO’s from https://icostats.com